In 2001, Lord Jim O’Neill, a former Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, coined the term “B.R.I.C.” as an acronym for the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term later metamorphosed to include South Africa to form “B.RI.C.S.” as we know this group of nations today. A few years later, in 2013, Lord Jim O’Neill predicted the rise of what he called the “M.I.N.T” Economies to signify the next class of rising economies with the unifying factors of population growth, a growing workforce, and steady year-on-year economic growth. M.I.N.T stands for the economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey.

A decade later, BRICS has taken off and eventually coalesced into a budding international organisation poised to counterbalance the G7. The MINT economies, however, have faced severe challenges, both economic and political, which have inhibited their progress. From political instability in Mexico and Turkey to corruption in the public sector in Indonesia, recessions, and insecurity challenges in Nigeria, it may take a while before sustainable economic progress is harnessed to move these economies from emerging economies to emerged economies.

However, it is crucial to analyse the background of Jim O’Neill’s prediction, especially the unifying factors that link these nations as the next group of globally buoyant markets. We should also explore the challenges that have stunted economic growth and glean recommendations from the B.R.I.C.S. countries, which comprise about 27% of the gross world product and 33% of the global GDP.

Latent Potential: Common Factors for M.I.N.T Economic Prosperity

Before the decade in review (2014-2024), certain factors unified and justified the inclusion of these four nations as part of a buoyant class of new emerging economies, especially with a largely sustained year-on-year GDP growth rate. According to the World Bank, Nigeria's GDP growth rate was 6.3% in 2014, although a slight decline from the previous year of 2013 at 6.5%. This was followed by a sharp decline in 2015 and two recessions in 2016 and 2020, with a negative GDP growth of -1.62% and -3.62 %, respectively. O'Neill's predictions were based on the following factors:

• Growing population and youthful populace entering the labour market
• Three out of the four nations are commodities and crude oil-based major exporters
• Geographically well positioned for trade
• Rapid GDP growth

These factors formed the backdrop for a reasonable prediction that a sustained year-on-year growth with purposeful domestic economic policies would lead to new regional economic miracles, especially as Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico are all vital trading hubs in their respective continents and sub-regions.

Macro-Analysis

1. Growing Population and Youths entering the labour market: The M.I.N.T Nations are some of the most populous in the world, with Nigeria having a population of over 210 million people, Mexico with a population of close to 130 million people, and Indonesia with a noteworthy 275 million people and only Turkey with a population just under 100 million people. The population growth could be positive, especially as it could become an attractive market for foreign direct investment and a growing labour force, and, with the appropriate infrastructural development, could become a major manufacturing hub. However, rapid population growth could also work as a two-edged sword when social amenities do not meet the population's pace and where stalled economic growth can lead to mass youth unemployment.
2. Three of the four nations are commodities and crude oil-based major exporters: Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of nickel- a mineral used in making electric vehicles (EV). Mexico is a key player in the global oil and gas industry as a non-OPEC member, and Nigeria holds the second-largest oil reserve in Africa behind Libya. This is perhaps one of the major flaws of the MINT economic prosperity paradigm. The prediction was made just before the notorious fall in oil prices in 2014 and far worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic. Major grades of crude oil, like the Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the international markets. Indonesia, however, seems to be better placed, primarily due to the global push in energy transition, with nickel being a key element in the making of EV batteries and EV manufacturers showing interest in building manufacturing plants in the country.
3. Geographically Well-Positioned for Trade: All four M.I.N.T nations are located in economic “sweet spots” regionally. The nation of Turkey straddles two continents, Asia and Europe, and acts as a bridge to two major economic markets. Nigeria has access to the sea through the Atlantic Ocean and is a major trading hub for West Africa. At the same time, Mexico and Indonesia also play similar vital roles in regional trade, with the latter running the Tanjung Priok port, one of the busiest ports in Asia with a tonnage capacity (teu) of 6,750,302.
4. Rapid GDP Growth: Indonesia has nearly maintained a year-on-year GDP growth, according to the World Bank, with a GDP growth of 5.2% as of 2022. A notable slump was recorded in 2020 when the economy recorded negative growth of -2.1%. O’Neill’s thesis checks out here because, at the point of the prediction, all four MINT nations were experiencing consistent GDP growth in 2013-14, - Nigeria (6.7%), Indonesia (5.6%), Turkey (8.5%), and Mexico (0.9 % in 2013 -2.5% in 2014). While these economies were promising at the time, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic took its toll by contracting the economies of Mexico and Nigeria, which suffered negative GDP growth of -8.7% and -1.8%, respectively. Indonesia also suffered a GDP negative growth of -2.1%.

Table 1: Nigeria's ten-year GDP growth (including two recessions in 2016 and 2020, with negative GDP growth)

Source: The World Bank

Nigeria’s Decade of Degression (2014-2024)

In a previous Veriv Africa article, the author highlighted the key factors that led to epileptic GDP growth post-2015. From a macro level, a slowdown in GDP growth began in 2014, with GDP growth recorded at 6.5%, down from 6.7% the previous year. However, there seems to be two primary factors that have stalled Nigeria’s economic progress thus:

• An Over-reliance on Oil Exports: This results from a largely under-diversified economy heavily reliant on the international price of crude oil and open to shocks caused by the volatile oil market. The Nigerian federal budget is estimated and hinged on the price of a barrel of crude oil on the international market, a risky venture that could mean that even after careful consideration, deficits could creep up only a few months after the budget has passed, thus leading to more borrowing from the Bretton Woods institutions. In keeping with this trend, this apparent deficit had led to the depletion of the Excess Crude Account (ECA), an account set up in 2004 to weather the storms of a shortfall in oil prices.  In addition, non-oil exports have yet to be adequately harnessed and currently contribute about 10% to the national GDP.
• The COVID-19 Pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic of  2020 met many nations unprepared to deal with multidimensional issues, including health crises, energy crises, economic regression, and growing poverty in many parts of the world.  The pandemic significantly reduced the need for refined petroleum products, especially jet fuel, due to heavy restrictions on travel. The significant reduction of buyers in the international markets resulted in a glut and a subsequent drastic fall in crude oil prices. Nigeria was hit hard. This event featured a significant shift in government policy with the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, a conscientious effort to diversify the Nigerian economy from crude oil exportation.

Recommendations: A Brief B.R.I.C.S Lesson

The M.I.N.T economies have largely stuttered in their economic growth. However, whether this would be viewed as the twilight of their promise or a simple ‘bump in the road’ depends mainly on the monetary policies each nation decides to pursue in the coming years. The BRICS nations have taken off and, without problems and difficulties, have fostered a forum for dialogue on economic growth and political cooperation, even admitting new members in January 2024. Here are key lessons to learn from BRICS:

Brazil: Economic growth in Brazil has been accelerated through investments in transport systems. This would improve productivity and reduce production costs, facilitating low-cost mass production, also used significantly in catalysing the Chinese “economic miracle”.

China: Low-cost mass manufacturing was at the heart of the Chinese economic miracle. Currently, China accounts for about 30% of global manufacturing output. Investing in manufacturing for countries like Nigeria would be imperative for sustained economic growth, especially as other M.I.N.T partners, Turkey, Mexico, and Indonesia, pull their weight in global manufacturing, ranking among the top nations in global manufacturing output.

In conclusion, the next decade could see the revitalisation of the MINT economies, but this would only be possible through conscientious growth-inducing economic policies. With conflicts springing up across various global hotspots, the MINT nations, especially Nigeria, must embrace multilateralism and work towards regional economic integration, primarily through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and through maintaining peace and democratic values throughout West Africa in the case of the ECOWAS leadership under Nigeria. The glass remains half full, and the world is waiting for the MINT nations to emerge on the global scene.

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