Nigeria's crude oil production declined in 2023 and 2024, failing to meet its OPEC quota for nine consecutive months. In September 2023, output stood at 1,572,315 barrels per day (bpd) but dropped to 1,562,072 bpd in October 2023. This downward trend persisted into 2024, with production falling further. The country's OPEC production target was set at 1.8 million bpd, but Nigeria consistently fell short, averaging just 1.327 million bpd in Q1 2024. In March 2024, output declined to 1.231 million bpd from 1.322 million bpd in February. 

The fight against oil theft in Nigeria has continued on multiple fronts. This is due to the challenge of addressing the leaks and steering the country towards economic stability. Despite the militarisation of the Niger Delta region and the engagement of private security firms to protect oil installations, oil theft appears to be unstoppable. In one week in April 2024, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recorded 155 oil theft incidents, uncovering 53 illegal pipeline connections and 36 illegal refineries. The dangerous nature of the illegal refining process, which often leads to explosions, fires, and loss of life, does not deter these criminal groups from continuing their activities. The threat of arrest and intervention by government authorities has not been an effective deterrent for the groups involved in illegal refining. Occasionally, illegal refineries are discovered and destroyed. However, these criminal groups continue to rebuild and resume their unlawful operations despite the financial losses incurred. 

Some stakeholders advocate for overhauling Nigeria's oil industry security architecture, as present and ongoing efforts have yet to yield the expected outcomes. Decade-long oil companies are either departing or relocating operations to deep offshore. This measure is intended to alleviate the burden of dealing with illegal oil bunkering and the ongoing destruction of pipelines and other assets. For example, Shell has announced plans to sell its Nigerian onshore subsidiary, Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC), to Renaissance Consortium.

Conventional Security Measures

The Niger Delta is Africa's largest oil-producing region, accounting for 70% of Nigeria's government revenue. Given the rise in oil theft, a Joint Task Force (JTF) of Nigerian Army, Air Force, Navy, and Police soldiers was deployed to the region in the early 2000s. The JTF is entrusted with combating the region's militant danger and preventing oil theft. The JTF has recorded successes in carrying out this mission by dismantling criminal rings, retrieving stolen crude, and destroying illegal refineries. According to a May 2024 report, the JTF destroyed over 40 illegal refining sites at Ukwa forest in Ukwa West Local Government Area of Abia. In July 2023, authorities seized and burnt an illegal vessel carrying approximately 150 metric tons of stolen petroleum bound for Cameroon. This action raised concerns among stakeholders.  While some suggested that the measure was intended to hide criminals' tracks by erasing evidence, others lamented the hazardous and environmentally harmful nature of burning illegal oil equipment. 

The conventional security agencies comprising the JTF have continued fine-tuning their strategies to achieve maximum effectiveness. In January 2024, the Nigerian Navy launched "Operations Delta Sanity" to reduce crude oil theft in the region. An expected advancement with this launch is the integration of maritime domain awareness facilities with unmanned aerial Vehicles to improve situational awareness in operational areas.

Notably, the JTF faces challenges, including logistical issues and complex terrains. Rear Admiral Aminu Hassan, the Force Commander of the Joint Task Force (JTF), South-South, Operation Delta Safe, noted that “In some of the creeks and swampy areas, if you start the journey in the morning, you will get to the area in the evening; this is how difficult the terrain can be”. Beyond these obstacles, there are claims that the JTF conspires with criminals to commit oil theft. These claims have resulted in calls for the removal of JTF commanders, which underscores a lack of trust and integrity in JTF operations.

Private Surveillance Contractors

Government agencies and oil companies offer private firms contracts for pipeline surveillance. Surveillance contractors monitor oil pipelines to prevent vandalism, theft, and locate leakages. In extension, 'Community pipeline surveillance' refers to the management of oil and gas infrastructure by host or impacted communities in the Niger Delta. The approach has gained popularity recently, supported by government messaging and approved by several stakeholders. 

Pipeline surveillance contracts in the Niger Delta may have various implications. According to some sources, monitoring is frequently used as a kind of 'Payment for peace' to agitators and political allies rather than actual surveillance. The JTF's inability to significantly reduce oil theft has resulted in the allocation of lucrative pipeline surveillance contracts to these private security firms. While the number of licensed private surveillance agencies may be unspecified, most are owned by former militant leaders. In September 2023, a private security company (Tantita) owned by an ex-militant named Government Ekpemupolo (Tompolo) was awarded a one-year surveillance contract worth ₦48 billion. Enhanced surveillance and intelligence gathering by private security firms have positively impacted oil production and exports, particularly after the Tantita Security contract. In April 2024, Tantita arrested a tugboat loaded with an unspecified quantity of illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) along the coastal area of Rivers State. Beyond Tantita,other notable private security contractors include: Global West Vessel Specialist Limited (GWVSL), Ocean Marine Solutions (OMS), SPDC (Shell Petroleum Development Company) Security, Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL) Security, and Agip (Nigerian Agip Oil Company - NAOC) Security.

Figure 1: Mapping of Notable Conventional Security Agencies and Private Surveillance Contractors

Source: Adapted from a list of online sources 

Conflicting Agendas, Divided Efforts

Given the challenge of oil theft, joint efforts between conventional security agencies and private surveillance firms are becoming increasingly necessary. However, current outcomes have yielded mixed results, characterised by both collaboration and distrust.  In February 2024, Tantita Security, in partnership with the Nigerian Police and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, arrested the Mordovian vessel MT Harbor Spirit in Bayelsa State. The ship was seized alongside 12 Nigerian crew members involved in illegal crude oil bunkering. In another incident, the Nigerian Navy arrested four Tantita staff members on charges of oil theft. A comprehensive, coordinated approach among stakeholders responsible for pipeline security is needed to improve the efficiency of the region's securitisation efforts.

A Pathway Forward 

Creating a United Front: To effectively manage all pipeline security operations, the government should establish a combined command centre represented by officials from traditional security agencies, private monitoring firms, and relevant government authorities. This will ensure that stakeholders follow a single approach and communicate consistently. This can be accomplished by developing Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that describe the roles, responsibilities, and protocols for all parties involved in pipeline security. These procedures should include channels for collaborative operations, intelligence exchange, and conflict resolution. Also, frequent joint training and simulation exercises are needed for personnel from traditional security agencies and private surveillance organisations. This will strengthen mutual understanding, foster trust, and increase the effectiveness of collaborative initiatives.

Enhance Technological Integration and Coordination: The government and stakeholders should leverage the extensive use of drones, satellite imaging, and other cutting-edge technologies to monitor oil installations and discover unlawful activity in real-time. This would enable seamless information interchange and operational coordination between traditional security agencies and private surveillance businesses, resulting in faster response times and greater overall efficacy.

Nigeria can build a solid and practical framework to protect its essential energy infrastructure and secure its economic interests by utilising various methods and resources. Combating oil theft in a united front with traditional and private surveillance organisations will improve response efficiency and reduce oil theft. Modern technologies such as drones, satellite photography, and AI-powered analytics can significantly boost the detection and surveillance capabilities of government agencies and private security firms. Real-time monitoring and early warning systems allow for proactive response, reducing the impact of illegal activities and cutting financial and environmental costs.

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