Nigeria's electoral history is an illuminating mirror of its political evolution, formed by the aspirations and restrictions of the period. It began in 1923, with the first parliamentary election under the Clifford Constitution, which formed the Nigerian parliamentary council. However, this first move toward government was severely defined, with representation limited to Lagos and Calabar; and voting privileges reserved for a select few—male British subjects and residents who met stringent property standards.
Nigeria's post-independence march toward sustainable democracy has been rocky, punctuated by military coups. Despite early attempts at democratic government, such as the 1964 and 1979 elections, military interventions frequently stalled progress, and democratic restoration took until 1999. The annulment of the 1993 election revealed structural governance flaws and the conflict between authoritarianism and democracy. These frequent disruptions not only hampered democratic consolidation but also slowed Nigeria's political stability. Nonetheless, the eventual return to civilian power in 1999 demonstrates the Nigerian people's tenacity and unshakable desire for a democratic administration.
Nigeria’s Election Voters Turnout
Nigeria has encountered fluctuations in voter participation since the return to civilian rule in 1999. The turnout rates in the early post-military elections were comparatively high, as citizens were eager to influence the new democratic order. Voter turnout is often used to measure civic participation. A study has demonstrated a correlation between electoral fraud and voter turnout, establishing a connection between decreased voter turnout and increased electoral fraud and vice versa.
For instance, the 2003 general election saw a voter turnout of over 60%, which suggests a significant level of public interest. Nevertheless, this enthusiasm has diminished, as evidenced by the substantial decline in turnout rates in subsequent elections. Voter turnout had declined to approximately 35% by 2019, and it was even lower in 2023, with only approximately 29% of registered voters casting their ballots.
Source: Dataphyte https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigeriadecides-nigeria-records-only-26-72-voter-turnout-in-2023-election/
Electoral violence significantly impacts voter turnout in Nigeria. Acts such as political thuggery, ballot box snatching, and clashes between party supporters create an atmosphere of fear and insecurity. In volatile regions, concerns for personal safety deter many potential voters from visiting polling stations.
Electoral violence manifests before elections, during the electoral process, and after the conclusion of elections. Violence preceding elections may occur during voter registration, campaign trails, primaries, and related pre-election activities. Instances such as the incineration of campaign buses belonging to Goodluck Ebele Jonathan during his 2015 reelection campaign, alongside the tragic fatalities at registration sites in Jos in 2011, serve as notable examples.
In 2023, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) reported 767 violent events and 2,016 in its Nigeria Election Violence Data between February 1 and April 21, 2023. This shows that the series of electoral violence did not stop at the elections; it started before and continued after the elections.
Various socioeconomic factors can influence voter participation. A significant portion of the Nigerian population faces poverty, which may lead to a diminished focus on electoral processes as their primary concerns revolve around survival and fulfilling essential needs. Individuals within the middle-income bracket may understand the electoral processes yet opt for disengagement, exercising their prerogative to abstain from voting, which may result in diminished voter turnout. A concerning phenomenon of voter apathy has permeated the Nigerian political landscape. This trend frequently indicates that the Nigerian government persists in exclusionary practices rather than fostering inclusion among its citizens.
Finally, the prevailing distrust in the electoral system has significantly contributed to the growing apathy among Nigerians during elections. Even with technological tools, the declaration of election results remains plagued by inaccuracies. The absence of trust has significantly affected the diminished voter turnout during elections.
Off-Cycle Elections in Nigeria
In 1999, as Nigeria transitioned to democratic governance, elections took place in every state. Following the announcement of the results, several candidates expressed their dissatisfaction and formally petitioned the tribunal. The tribunal rejected their petitions and concurrently dismissed the governors from eight states. These eight states have commenced conducting their elections at non-standard intervals. Bayelsa, Osun, Ondo, Kogi, Edo, Imo, Anambra, and Ekiti engage in gubernatorial elections independently of the general election timeline.
Off-cycle elections may serve as a mechanism to rectify the shortcomings of general elections or experiment with innovative electoral policies; however, they continue to encounter the same challenges that plague general elections.
Recommendations for Better Election Processes
The trends observed during elections in Nigeria stem from flawed electoral processes. The electoral processes can improve with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) till it reaches the citizens. INEC must operate independently and autonomously, free from political meddling, which has historically fostered public scepticism in the institution. Leadership appointments should be entirely meritocratic and apolitical, promoting trust in the commission.
While the digitisation of registration processes has commenced, the procedure can be streamlined and enhanced by enabling residents to register or update their information online and in real time. This would also aid in the eradication of duplicate registrations and diminish administrative expenses. Establishing permanent collation centres, which would provide extended hours for PVC retrieval, can facilitate the gathering of permanent voter cards.
It is essential to promote voter education among residents via national orientation agencies by providing customised material in many languages to enhance accessibility. There is an ongoing necessity to reform the electoral statute to modify the timetables for electoral disputes, facilitating a more expedited adjudication of cases before the inauguration of newly elected politicians. This can avert disturbances resulting from extended litigation. Electoral offences such as voter intimidation, ballot theft, and violence should incur stringent punishments. Disseminating information about instances in which offenders are held accountable can serve as a deterrent to others.
Nigeria's electoral scene is characterised by a complex mix of historical problems, socioeconomic issues, and systemic defects, all of which have substantially impacted voter turnout and the broader democratic process. Military interventions and election violence have disrupted the path to a stable and inclusive democracy, instilling widespread cynicism in the public. Despite initial enthusiasm upon the return to civilian authority in 1999, voting turnout has plummeted, indicating widespread voter apathy and frustration with the political process. By fostering a political environment that prioritises inclusivity and accountability, Nigeria can revitalise its democratic aspirations and encourage greater civic engagement among its citizens. Ultimately, the path to a robust democracy lies in the commitment to reform and the unwavering resolve of the Nigerian people to demand a government that genuinely represents their interests.
References
Adigun, O. W. (2020). The factors determining voter turnouts in presidential elections in Nigeria: multivariate correlation analysis of the 2019 presidential election. Open Political Science, 3(1), 11–33. https://doi.org/10.1515/openps-2020-0002
Baghdasaryan, V., Iannantuoni, G., & Maggian, V. (2019). Electoral fraud and voter turnout: An experimental study. European Journal of Political Economy, 58, 203–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.12.001
Mackintosh, J. P. (1962). Electoral trends and the tendency to a one-party system in Nigeria. Journal of Commonwealth Political Studies, 1(3), 194–210. https://doi.org/10.1080/14662046208446971
Oyoru, R. A. (2023). An assessment of factors responsible for low voter turnout in Nigeria: A literature review. Kashere Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1(1).
