Compelled by the grim realities of global warming, nations all over the world have sought ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the recently concluded United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai, countries of the world showed a renewed commitment to the Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce the global temperature to 1.5 degrees by 2060. This agreement compelled the international community to collectively decide on phasing out fossil fuels in order to achieve the net zero emission target agreed on in Paris in 2015. Netzeroclimate.org explains ‘to go net zero’ as ‘to lower greenhouse gas emissions and/or make sure that the removal of greenhouse gases balances any remaining emissions.

Aligned with this ambition, The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) introduced the World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023. Its objective is to promote clean energy drivers, including pure hydrogen technologies, solar and geothermal energy, and other renewable energy systems. It also aims to accelerate the adoption and commercialisation of technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to help isolate carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. 

Nigeria has developed its energy transition plan to achieve this ambition. The Energy Transition Plan suggests that about eleven per cent of the country’s CO₂ emissions come from the upstream energy sector. Adopting this duo—implementing cleaner hydrogen production while utilising CO₂ capture and permanent storage underground—can significantly reduce these emissions.

Nigeria: Sub-saharan Africa’s Energy Hub

Nigeria boasts over 37 billion barrels of oil in place, 200 trillion cubic feet of gas in place, and over 350 million tons of proven coal reserves. According to Westwood Global Energy, the Nigerian Government plans to double its oil production from a current production capacity of 1.3Mbl per day to 2.6Mbl per day in 2027. Wood McKenzie also predicts a CAPEX Upstream investment of about $20 billion in sub-Saharan Africa, with one-third of the investment directed to Nigeria. This resolution was reported in the November 2023 edition of 5 Things to Look for in Sub-Saharan Africa Upstream Outlook. A potential increase in investment equates to a rise in production capacity and a relative increase in CO₂ emission in the upstream sector value chain. 

Powering Nigeria to Net Zero

With its growing energy market, Nigeria is at a crossroads on pursuing a more sustainable future. According to the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan, the upstream value chain is among the largest emitters of CO₂. 

CCS and Hydrogen, often viewed as independent players, can be a dynamic duo to address the challenges of emissions reduction and energy security in the country. Analysing data from the current annual consumption level of coal, it is clear that Nigeria has over 1900 years' worth of coal in reserve. These fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) can be utilised to produce grey hydrogen through Steam Methane Reformation (SMR), the most used method for hydrogen production globally. Hydrocarbons are split into CO₂ and hydrogen during this process. The hydrogen generated can then be used as an energy carrier in fuel cells, and the CO₂ (Fig. 1) is injected into depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. 

CCS: What, Why and How? 

CCS, an acronym for Carbon Capture and Storage, describes capturing, transporting, and permanently storing CO₂ in geological formations (Fig. 2) with enough storage capacity to safely contain the CO₂ without it leaking into the subsurface. These geologic storage locations could be depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, saline aquifers, salt caverns, coal seams, or even impermeable shale gas formations. 

Note that there are no known salt caverns and salt domes in Nigeria. However, being a large producer of hydrocarbons, the nation has structural geological traps that can safely contain CO₂ in depleted or depleting hydrocarbon fields and in coal seams. Through many years of oil exploration activities, Nigeria has available data that may only require a little modification for CO₂ storage, and better security mechanisms for long-time containment in depleted reservoirs. A study by Fagorite et al. highlighted the potential of three coal seams in the Anambra Basin for coal bed methane (CBM), CO₂-ECBM, and CO₂ storage^, with an estimated total storage capacity of about 13.5 billion tonnes of CO₂.

How?

Captured CO₂ from industries is transported through value chains from the point of capture to the storage site. The dense, separated CO₂ after capture is transported and injected into porous rocks, typically located 800m or more below the surface, through injection wells. This injection process stands in contrast to conventional oil and gas production. Fig. 3 shows countries around the globe that have commenced CO₂ storage, CO₂+EOR sites, and proposed sites for the commencement of CCS.

Key criteria for adopting CCS technology include developing a practical storage plan, which involves analysing static and dynamic site storage capacity, conducting environmental risk assessments, performing economic analyses, managing wellbore integrity, and establishing monitoring and post-closure plans. Utilising previous hydrocarbon field data, such as well log data, seismic survey data, core data, pore pressure and temperature data, legacy well data, etc., is pivotal to creating a structured storage development plan that will ensure the safe containment of CO₂ in the subsurface.

Hydrogen Market Analysis

Hydrogen has recently attracted much interest in the energy market due to the net zero emission target. The growing demand for hydrogen has significantly increased globally, hence the scale-up in the three sectors of the hydrogen market – production, technology and storage. According to the Market Research Report, 2024-(Fig.4), “…the market size was valued to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.47% from 2023. It is speculated to increase from approximately $290 billion to about $525 billion by the year 2030.

Similarly, the Energy Transition Commission (ETC) predicted that “…the hydrogen market is projected to reach $207 billion by 2026 with a growth rate of 8.1% involving 121 million tonnes of production”. The consistency in these predictions is reassuring for the global hydrogen market's growth. Nigeria, as the energy giant of sub-Saharan Africa, could tap into this for a tilt toward green energy. 

What are the Investment Opportunities?

Investors worldwide are interested in renewable energy and the energy transition. In Fig. 5 below, we can see IRENA’s recommendation of CCS and hydrogen as a clean path to net zero. About 614mt (metric tonnes) of hydrogen is expected to be produced in the next two to three decades. So, why wait until 2060? It is crucial to act now to reach the net zero target.

Investing in a country like Nigeria could be challenging due to the lack of available data at hand and the cost of research. Indigenous energy companies and renewable energy start-ups can benefit from research funds in global institutions like the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) R&D Program. This institution makes funding for research and development on CCS and hydrogen technologies available. The Nigerian Government can support this area through agencies like the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). To facilitate CCS research and development, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) can make relevant data accessible to business development experts and researchers. This will help create excellent business models for such projects.

Additionally, the government and key stakeholders should agree to a policy and regulatory framework since there is currently no structure for this kind of technology. Nigeria can draw upon factors the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlined when selecting safe storage sites for CCS implementation and hydrogen, to ensure proper site selection and secure containment of injected CO₂.

Conclusion 

A combination of both CCS and hydrogen production through SMR will play a major role in not only achieving net zero goals but also in boosting Nigeria’s economy through enhanced oil production in the next five years. Key factors suggested for the effective implementation of such projects are:

• A regulatory framework.

• Hydrogen production capabilities.

• Hydrogen storage options.

• Storage capacity models.

• Excellent CO₂ storage site development plan.

This will ensure profitable hydrogen production, storage, and safe containment of CO₂ in the subsurface. When implemented, this move can potentially solve the challenge of the global energy trilemma: security, sustainability, and equity.

Glossary:

CAPEX: Capital Expenditure.

CBM: Coal Bed Methane-natural gas found in coal seams.

CCS: Carbon capture and storage.

CO₂-ECBM: CO₂ Enhanced Coal Bed Methane. A process that involves injection of CO₂ to enhance recovery of coal bed methane.

COP: Conference of Parties.

COP 28: 28^th meeting of the Conference of Parties held in Dubai, NOV-DEC 2023.

CO₂-EOR:  CO₂ Enhanced Oil Recovery- this helps boost oil production.

GHG: Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

GW: Giga Watts.

IEA: International Energy Agency.

IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency.

Mbl: Millions of barrels.

Mt- Metric Tonnes.

SMR: Steam Methane Reformation

Tcf: Trillion Cubic Feet.

References

Fagorite, V., Onyekuru, S., Ohia, N., Enenebeaku, C., Agbasi, O., & Oluwajana, O. (2023). Prospect evaluation of CO₂ sequestration in coal beds of Anambra basin, Nigeria. Unconventional Resources, 3, 248-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uncres.2023.06.002.

Hydrogen Market Research Report, 2024. 

Hydrogen Production with Steam Methane Reforming and CCUS by Jim Cahill, Lara Rabbath, 2023

IPCC, 2005: IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Metz, B., O. Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L. A. Meyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 442 pp. 

IRENA (2023), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway, Volume 1, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan: A journey towards equity, fairness and inclusion.

Owain Tucker, World Physics Discovery: Carbon Capture and Storage.

Wood Mackenzie (2023). Sub-Saharan Africa Upstream: 5 things to look for in 2024.