A Data-Driven Argument for State Police in Nigeria

In a bizarre turn of events, Nigerians awoke to a surreal scene post-Valentine's Day in 2024. The government initiated a program to seal shops accused of exacerbating the dire cost-of-living crisis. This move signalled Nigeria's descent into its most severe economic turmoil in four decades, with eerie echoes of past struggles haunting the present. On February 15th, Nigeria's Consumer Protection Board, the FCCPC, unveiled its grand plan: establishing a Price Control Committee. This committee purportedly sought to delve into the labyrinth of the food industry, identifying pockets of minimal competition, prescribing fair pricing mechanisms, and assessing their impact—all while navigating the delicate balance of a supposedly free market economy.

Price Control Boards and Insecurity

Amidst soaring food prices and societal unrest, Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, pledged allegiance to homegrown solutions, vowing to fortify local food production while strangling the tendrils of rent-seeking associated with food imports. Tinubu advocated establishing state police networks alongside a proposal to deploy forest rangers, blurring the lines between law enforcement and environmental protection in a landscape rife with uncertainty and apprehension.

He added that he had given the go-ahead for the formation of a committee comprising state governors and representatives from the federal government. The committee’s responsibility will be to investigate, among various matters, the potential implementation of state police and support the initiative for sub-national governments to train and equip forest rangers, aiming to safeguard both human and natural resources within communities.

However, to tackle security, the President also noted that he instructed the National Security Adviser, the Inspector-General of Police, and the Director-General of the Department of State Services to cooperate and ensure that security agencies in the states inspect such warehouses and take follow-up action because Nigeria “ cannot allow speculators, hoarders, and rent seekers to undermine our efforts in ensuring that food is widely available to all Nigerians.” This means the Nigerian Government announced a “price control” policy and a plan to establish state police.

Rough Start

Nigeria’s President, Tinubu, may be about to go down as having the worst 12-month start in the country’s democratic history, judging by the security challenges it faces. Global Rights, an international civil society organisation, revealed in January that from June 2023, at least 2,423 Nigerians have been killed, and no less than 1872 people abducted in various attacks across the country. For January 2024, Enough is Enough disclosed that there were approximately 245 reported kidnapping cases, and kidnappers demanded over 6 billion naira in ransoms.

Murder in the Middle Belt and Food Inflation

In December 2023, terrorists invaded the maize-producing Magu community in Plateau State. Nearly 200 people were killed over Christmas in raids on primarily Christian villages. A month later, 30 people were killed in renewed violence in Magu despite a 24-hour curfew imposed on Plateau’s Mangu local district, reported by Al-Jazeera.

It should not come as a surprise that Nigeria’s statistic agency recently reported that Nigeria’s inflation rate for January 2024 was 29.90%, down from 28.92% in December 2023, and that food Inflation was 35.41% in January 2024, down from 33.93% in December 2023. The NBS also added that the rise in food inflation is caused by a surge in the prices of potatoes, yam & other tubers, bread and cereals, fish, meat, tobacco, and vegetables”. Potatoes and tubers are grown in Nigeria’s food-producing middle belt regions, which have experienced increased attacks on farmers by violent non-state actors.

On the state level, in January 2024, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (44.18%), Kwara (40.87%), and Rivers (40.08%). This indicates that the state where Nigeria’s north meets the south and is a necessary transit route for food transport in Nigeria (Kogi) witnessed Nigeria’s most significant food price hike in a month.

A look into Nigeria’s food inflation data from January 2023 to January 2024 shows how Kogi, Kwara, and Rivers states are dealing with rising food inflation. The last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 have seen a dramatic increase in food inflation. Note that insecurity is a complex factor affecting food inflation, including the removal of fuel subsidies and naira devaluation, which has created a food crisis in the country.

Food Items and Media reported Killings.

Recall that the federal government reported that food Inflation was 35.41% in January 2024, up from 33.93% in December 2023. A cursory look at specific food items shows the growth rate between the first quarter of 2023 and the last quarter of 2023 ( so far), with maize and rice recording a nearly 100% price increase. A cursory look at specific food items shows the growth rate between the first quarter of 2023 and the last quarter of 2023 (so far), with maize and rice recording nearly a 100% price increase over the same period.

In that same period, Nigeria recorded wartime figures for media-reported killings, with Nigeria’s food production zones (North West, North Central and North East) recording the most casualties.

Data reveals that in Q2 2023, during Nigeria’s food planting season, the North Central saw a spike in killings, while the North East and North West recorded significant increases towards the later end of the year. However, the southern regions recorded fewer cases of killings. The impact of the massacres in Nigeria’s food belt means the food transported south became more expensive.

A look at media-reported killings for the year 2024 also paints a gory picture of Nigeria’s security challenges. Production in food-producing states, including Plateau, Benue and Kaduna, has been halted by this.

Political Will

However, where there is a will, there is a way. Following Nigerian democratic history, nothing gets done without a political and non-partisan drive toward fixing a solution. A few days before President Tinubu’s order to commence investigations towards establishing state police, Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos State, through the Lagos State House of Assembly, passed a resolution urging the National Assembly to commence urgent constitutional amendment to allow for the creation of state police. Speaker Mudashiru Obasa called for properly equipping the neighbourhood safety corps to support other security agencies in Lagos state, urging that this should be the focus of the National Assembly and putting structures in place to ensure the institution of an efficient state police. Meanwhile, The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governors’ Forum also expressed support, saying it will address the country's current security challenges.

The Governor of Bauchi State and forum Chairman, Bala Mohammed, revealed the ratio of police to citizens is meagre. He added that governors know the peculiarity of the security challenges faced in their states. He also noted that the move would enable Nigerian governments at all levels to reform the structure of security agencies, provide training for youths interested in enrolling, and ensure adherence to rules of engagement to prevent any abuse and extrajudicial killings. He cited that the PDP intends to align with international best practices towards a state police solution. Mohammed noted that recent events in Zamfara and the establishment of Amotekun in the southwest demonstrate the importance of community security, which has eased citizens' fears.

Bottomline

Solving Nigeria’s food challenges also involves other aspects, including improving yields, agronomy, research education, storage, and infrastructure and being willing to import food in the short term. However, involving state police infrastructure is a significant step towards avoiding famine. Having law enforcement officials safeguard farmlands in conflict-prone locations will enable farmers to access their farms with little to no resistance from non-state violent actors ( bandits in the Nigerian media). Nigeria’s food-producing regions have been badly hit by rising insecurity, which means investments in the states for food production are limited, as money requires security to be present.

The next hurdle would be funding the state police infrastructure, as many states need more financial capacity to start their own. This means that governors may have to work with regional state police initiatives, or the Federal Government may fund it as a “ priority need” to fight food inflation and avert famine.

References:

FCCPC Nigeria announcing search of warehouse: https://twitter.com/fccpcnigeria/status/1758023071519121788
President Tinubu on state police and food networks:

https://twitter.com/officialABAT/status/1758187623393251522